How the Zanu Empire will fall in Zim: The Ever-Rising Break-Even Point

a Rising Wedge in Financial Markets
The Rising Wedge Model Breakdown: From Charles Hugh Smith
  • an ever-increasing contingent of CIOs to monitor everyone, including the CIOs themselves.
  • an ever -an increasing number of soldiers to fend-off any move by the citizens to protest or rebel
  • an ever-increasing number of police officers everywhere, in order to keep law and order, in an increasingly disorderly society
  • more taxes
  • more inflation
  • more repressive laws
  • more looting opportunities to keep the bureaucratic and corrupt participants happy
  • Whereas the system needed around 1,000 CIOs in 1997, it probably needs 5,000 now
  • Whereas the system could do with 20,000 soldiers in 1997, it probably needs 50,000 now
  • Whereas the system needed do dish out gifts ad bribes to 5 church leaders in 2009, it now needs to bribe and gift every other popular cleric, say 10
  • Whereas the system, say a Ministry, needed to reward 7 corrupt officials in that ministry in 1998, it now has to reward the entire ministry over and above their salaries.
  • the police officer and the soldier cannot get medical care because nurses and doctors are not paid
  • The foot soldier cannot send his children to school because teachers have given up
  • the empire will create an illusion of stability and strength amidst a failing core using phantom leaders
  • Its chaos and disorder
  • Matebeleland can break away. Manicaland might also attempt to
  • Warlords might arise in the Midlands (more than just maShurugwi)
  • Coups can happen, one after the other
  • Militias arise, insurgencies in parts of the country
  • Can easily witness mutinies and rebels
  • Runaway crime
  • General non-compliance from the public
  • The Emperor loses control and whoever replaces him has even lesser control

How far is Emmerson’s government from the Break-Even Point?

  • It is almost there
  • Healthcare has collapsed, doctors and nurses are almost working for free
  • Education is in near-collapse, with teachers perpetually in strike mode (either striking or threatening to strike)
  • A shrinking GDP means shrinking tax collections
  • The repressive system now has to be funded by 1) auctioning state resources and 2) diverting once-privatized mineral revenues to the state. This can only go so far in maintaining the system.
  • Any further fall in revenues, below the lofty minimum needed to maintain the system, will require taking away privileges and preferences on the police and military.

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Ryan Gosha

Ryan Gosha

Financial Analyst, Cloud Accountant, Citizen Data Scientist, FPL Boss